Lets wind it back. Its early April 2011. I’m living in Japan, newly married and looking to start investing some hard earned English Teaching Yen.
I start investigating a few different investment options. All are boring, or expensive. Banks interest rates are about 0.1% . Dead end.
I read Stock Market for Dummies. I become an expert on the stock market.
I read Precious Metal Investing for Dummies. I become a precious metal investing expert.
I begin to develop complex theories on why investing in silver is going to make you and me filthy rich! You can read them here.
Have you ever convinced yourself something is a good idea without really looking into it?
I download the Kitco app. It shows charts for all different precious metals.
The Silver chart backs me up that I am right. It’s heading UP UP UP. I check the chart over the past five years. UP UP UP!
Analogy Part I
My best analogy for the chart is that It looks like I’m staring up from the base of a double black diamond ski slope. The silver price is up in the clouds. It’s a sure thing. Lets chairlift this thing to the top.
My American room mate backs me up. His family knows a guy that knows a guy that sells silver bars and coins at wholesale! Fate!
I get excited.
He gets excited.
I put in money.
He puts in money.
We buy buy buy.
The silver chart keeps going up!
I check it every day, and the story is always the same. We are investing champions! I begin to write my own book on precious metals and how I am the king of investing.
|Date||Price $ USD|
|19th April 2011||$43.22/oz|
|20th April 2011||$44.79/oz|
|21st April 2011||$46.26/oz|
|28th April 2011||$48.70/oz|
Silver is the highest it’s been since the 80’s! Experts are predicting it will crack $50/oz any day now! Silver is unstoppable all the way into May 2011..
I get giddy with investing and begin watching the chart in real time, cackling like a lunatic as it keeps ticking higher and higher. My wife tells me I started chanting. Fifty!, fifty! , fifty! as I slept in fever pitched silver dreams.
I start planning vacations, holiday homes, and cigars. I choose a Ferrari to buy. I decide to go with a red one, but make greedy plans to paint it silver.
May 2nd, 2011. Osama Bin laden is assassinated.
Confidence in the world economy
Oh by the way, a big factor in the success of precious metal investing is low economic confidence. In very broad strokes when economic confidence is high people sell it up and when its low people buy it up. See here for my full theory.
The price of Silver starts to slump, then stumble, then it wanders in front of an oncoming freight train and gets REKT.
Analogy Part II
I start skiing down the double black diamond death slope and my skiis break. I hit every tree on way down. A kind man steals my wallet as I lay in the snow.
Of course the price drop in silver is a lot more complicated than just Bin Laden, but the damage was done, and my house of silver cards started falling down one by one all around me.
Am I happy Bin Laden is gone? Sure.
Do I wish it happened a month earlier before I hitched my wagon to the silver star?